The E1 population of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) migrates annually between the Great Barrier Reef area (breeding) and the Southern Ocean feeding grounds. Adaptation to climate change is an ongoing challenge for humpback whales and an understanding of their response is essential for estimating the future distribution and movements of this species.
Here, we report on a multidisciplinary modelling approach to advance knowledge on this subject; it uses humpback whale sightings, in situ and remotely-sensed environmental data to identify the key behavioural responses to local environmental cues. This information feeds into an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates humpback whale movements through time and space under current climate conditions. Results show that the ABM reproduces movements of east-Australian humpback whales very well compared with validation data from satellite tagged individuals and citizen science data. Consequently, the ABM may be capable of simulating movements under future climate projections for this region.
Research on this subject is very limited and given the high ecosystem and economic value of this species, we believe our approach can contribute towards advancing international whaling conservation efforts. Furthermore, it may be applicable to other marine species for investigating a response to climate change.