Short Talk (7,5 mins) Australian Marine Sciences Association 2022

Extreme weather events mediate the capacity of reef building corals to adapt to increasing temperature (#394)

Thomas Richards 1
  1. University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia

We know that organisms and the natural systems in which they reside will need to respond and adapt to the inevitable disruption brought on by climatic change. Unfortunately, in many areas of this study including predictions about adaptive evolution, we don't know enough basic biological information about the complex processes underlying ecological and evolutionary dynamics in marine systems to make accurate predictions about how adaptation may proceed. Similarly, we currently don’t know how chronic gradual increases in temperature or acute events such as extreme weather events will affect the potential capacity for coral species to adapt. Here we employ forward simulations to model the evolutionary response of corals to the combination of chronic and acute climate related changes. We show that random mortality as a result of acute environmental disturbance (analogous to cyclone damage or CoTS outbreaks) affects demographic parameters such as population size and competitive dynamics which in turn determine the capacity for corals to adapt to chronic increases in mean temperature. Importantly, we find that a reduction in adaptive capacity is determined primarily by the frequency of disturbance. This work presents important considerations for when, where, and how, intervention efforts can best be directed in order to mitigate climate change effects and restore degraded areas.