Standard Presentation (15 mins) Australian Marine Sciences Association 2022

Characterising the climatic, physical and geomorphological niche of Avicennia Marina and climate change potential impacts in Australia   (#106)

Marycarmen Martinez Diaz 1
  1. Monash University, East Melbourne, VICTORIA, Australia

The geographical distribution of Avicennia marina (grey mangrove), the most widespread mangrove along the coast of Australia is influenced directly by climatic, physical and geomorphological factors. These factors, or environmental drivers, together structure a niche and include sea level, water quality, temperature, rainfall, waves, light, currents and physiographic settings. This study aims to model the spatial distribution and to characterise the most important environmental drivers in the distribution of Avicennia marina. Historically, the factors of the niche have focused on bioclimatic variables, this study aims to incorporate for the first time physical and geomorphological forcing in mangrove niche models. To model the spatial distribution of Avicennia marina, we used maximum entropy models for predicting the spatial distribution of current suitable niche habitat in Australia and made some future predictions including climate change scenarios. We also determined the relative importance of the climatic and physiographic parameters for A. marina distributions. Our study showed 7 distinct mangrove populations in Australia with similar climatic and environmental characteristics. Some of them are more exposed to dramatic changes in climate that could cause a loss of habitat while others could see a growth on the suitable habitat.