Standard Presentation (15 mins) Australian Marine Sciences Association 2022

Ensemble ecosystem modelling to predict impacts of marine invasive species to Antarctic ecosystems (#38)

Oakes Holland 1
  1. Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD

There are many examples of marine invasive species that have cause irreparable damage in their invaded range. However, this is more the exception than the rule, with only roughly 10% of invasive species causing negative impacts to recipient ecosystems. Given the limited resources available for marine invasive species monitoring and surveillance, we need tools that can help us identify those invasive species which could have impacts in a new environment. This is particularly true in areas that are difficult to access, such as the Southern Ocean. The Antarctic marine environment is one of the last regions on earth free of invasive species. There is a growing concern that climate change will cause conditions in the Antarctic marine environment to become suitable for non-native species establishment in the coming years. Here, I used an ensemble ecosystem model to create a range of plausible future scenarios of changes to an Antarctic coastal marine food web following the successful establishment of a number of marine invasive species. This analysis can also be used to assess how successful an invasive species may be in invading a new environment.