Marginal coral reefs existing at the upper limit of their turbidity range may have enhanced resilience to bleaching compared to their clear water counterparts but could also be at increased risk under climate change. Metocean processes driving turbidity are likely to alter under climate forcing scenarios, resulting in new turbidity regimes that will differ regionally. Here we have used multi-decadal remote sensing MODIS satellite data to model the metocean processes driving turbidity in the Exmouth Gulf. We then assess benthic habitat structure across the long-term turbidity gradient using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) survey to find thresholds for coral reef resilience to bleaching and coral-algal regime shifts. Finally, we model how climate change could affect turbidity, and therefore coral reef resilience, at these habitats by applying regionally downscaled projections to two climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble climate model data.